Iran has officially recognized the fact of downing of Ukrainian Boeing-737 in the sky above Tehran. However, there are a lot of blind spots remained in this tragedy. In particular, according to the statement of the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ aerospace division, the downing of Boeing by the missile system TOR-M1 (SA-15 Gauntlet) was “tragic mistake”. But do we have to trust this statement?
TOR-M1 is short-range missile system which has powerful target engagement radar and fire control systems. The commander of this missile receives information about the speed, direction of air targets and the level of their danger. The speed and altitude of Ukrainian Boeing did not let any chance to consider it was either military jet or rocket (too low speed), or unmanned aerial vehicle (too low altitude). Moreover, Boeing-737 did not approach to Tehran, but moved away from it, it excluded any danger for Iranian capital. Therefore, the crew of TOR-M1 launched the missile to destroy the target understanding they are going destroy passenger airliner.
It is also worth mentioning that TOR-M1 were produced and supplied to Iran by Russia and Russia has stealth technology to interfere in the fire control system of the TOR.
Why did Russia need that? It is highly likely, that it would be great benefit for Russia to destabilize the current situation in the region, at the time USA-Iran relations are aggravated as never before. Such destabilization is required to cover their own aggressive actions.
The downing of Ukrainian airliner with Canadian and EU countries citizens on board could have aim to accuse the US of committing this crime, because Iranian government was waiting for US military response to the recent Iranian attacks on US military camps in Iraq. However, there was no military activity of the US Army in region (neither by US Air Force, nor by Army air Defense) military experts completely rejects the participation of the United States to the downing of Ukrainian Boeing. Therefore, there are reasons to reckon that the international pressure on Islamic republic of Iran (mostly by EU and Canada) made Tehran to cancel original plan to accuse US of downing Boeing.
Iranian government was allegedly forced to declare the downing of Boeing was accidental to cover the intention of third party (Russia, as we believe). This intention was to increase the tension around the Middle East.
Even in this situation (which went far away from the original plot, written in Moscow) Russia gained some benefits: Iran admitted guilt and now is facing strengthening of sanctions, the Iran’s dependence on Russia is increased dramatically, Russian trace is almost not visible, downed airliner was property of the country, which cannot defend its interests worldwide and cannot achieve public recognition of real reasons of tragedy. As the result, the danger of the aggravation of situation in Middle East is remained, the chance of increasing oil prices has rocketed and the result of review this case in UN security council is totally dependent on Russia – the main ally of Islamic Republic of Iran.